another collection of posts, with comments. Wanna know what I REALLY think of Government experts? Go review the last 50-60 years of nutrition advice coming out of DC, then sk me again.

When Suddenly Everyone Is a Technocratic Epistocrat with special guest appearance of Dr. Lockdown.

Not Covid-19 related, but adjacent. MODELS WORK BEST WHEN YOU HAVE PERFECT DATA AND A COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING OF THE PROCESSES INVOLVED, …

After Repeated Failures, It’s Time To Permanently Dump Epidemic Models. However, these models haven’t been especially useful. The thing is, to model things accurately you need reliable data and an accurate understanding of the underlying processes. We have neither of those, so models mostly just generate attractive graphs to conceal the uncertainties.

and a final one … Rules of Thumb for Evaluating Statistical Models